Tuesday, 5 February 2019

THE GHOST RIDERS OF ORDEBEC (FRED VARGAS), THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT AND CHAOS THEORY

No, she’s careful, not a gossip, Danglard. She takes seriously the butterfly wing that moves in New York and causes an explosion in Bangkok.’
Did she say that?’
No, that was Émeri.’
Well, he’s wrong. It’s in Brazil that the butterfly moves its wing, and it causes a hurricane in Texas.’
Does that make any difference, Danglard?’
Yes. Because once you get away from the original words, the purest of theories just become rumours. Then we don’t know anything. From one approximation to another inaccuracy, the truth unravels and obscurantism takes over.’
Danglard’s mood was improving, as it did every time he had a chance to give a lecture, or better still to contradict someone with his knowledge. The commandant wasn’t a chatterbox, but silence wasn’t good for him either, because it offered too much room for his melancholy to take over. Sometimes it just took a few exchanges to hoist Danglard out of his despondency. Adamsberg was putting off the moment of mentioning Momo the local fire-raiser, and so was Danglard, which was not a good sign.
There must be several versions of the butterfly story.’
No,’ said Danglard firmly. ‘It’s not a fable, it’s a scientific theory about predictability. It was formulated by Edward Lorenz in 1972 in the version I gave you. The butterfly’s in Brazil and the hurricane’s in Texas, you can’t go altering that.’

I can hardly add something to this text, because the role that I usually play correcting in a fussy way is done by Danglard in the dialogue. Indeed, Lorentz, the man that looks like a kind grandfather in the picture, started creating a mathematic model to study the convection movements of the atmosphere and he came to the conclusions that the text suggests

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